Estimation of Archaeological potential with Page rank based predictive model: the MAPPA project results

(1)

'%'!()+,#+-.!-/!

#0123-4-$+1#4!5-3.+#4!

6+*2!"#$3!0#.7!8#)39!

5039+1+:3!,-934;!23!

<=""=!50->31!03)?4)%!

@0#.13)1#!=.+12+.+A!B#0+-!C+.+A!D3:+-!

B?88+.+A!@#8+-!@#8+#.+A!E#80+343!E#**+$4+#A!

@0#.13)1-!E2+FF#.+!<#01G#A!@0#.13)1#!

E0#))+.+A!<%H3*+F+#!E?#4#.9+A!H?1#!"#0-9+A!

6HUJLR6WH΍ª

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ȴFDQW DUFKDHRORJLFDO VWUDWLȴFDWLRQLVSUHVHUYHG7KHIROORZLQJSDUDPHWHUV ZHUHLGHQWLȴHGWRSURSHUO\GHȴQHWKHDUFKDHRORJLFDO 5-*3.*+#4;!*K53!-/!)3**43,3.*A!93.)+*K!-/!)3**43,3.*A! ,?4*+I4#K30+.$!-/!935-)+*)A!03,-:#843!-0!.-.I03,-I :#843!.#*?03!-/!*23!#012#3-4-$+1#4!935-)+*A!93$033!-/! 503)30:#*+-.!-/!*23!935-)+*!M!"#$%#"#&%,("-..!QR''N%!O23! LGHQWLȴFDWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLRQV WKDW H[LVW DPRQJ ȴQI

FRQȴJXUDWLRQVRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVGHȴQLQJWKHSRWHQI *+#4%!S.!-*230!6-09)A!9353.9+.$!#4)-!-.!*23!#012#3I -4-$+1#4! 530+-9! 63! #03! 1-.)+930+.$A! +*! +)! 5-))+843! *-! 9+)*+.$?+)2!#03#)!+.!62+12!RQO\VRPHFRQȴJXUDWLRQV RISDUDPHWHUVWKDWGHȴQHWKHDUFKDHROR$+1#4!5-*3.I *+#4!#03!/3#)+843A!-0!,-)*!50-8#843%!T?12!/3#)+843!-0! PRVWSUREDEOHFRQȴJXUDWLRQVDUHJLYHQE\UHODWLRQV DPRQJȴ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ȴFDWLRQV EXLOGLQJV 0-#9!.3*6-07A!2K5-*23)3)!-/!2+)*-0+#.)!#.9!#012#3I -4-$+)*)A!3*1%N%!O23!#012#3-4-$+1#4!9#*#!,-934!1-,8+I .39!0#6!9#*#!#.9!+.*30503*39!9#*#A!#.9!$-!/0-,!43))! )K.*23*+1!9#*#!M+%3%!*23!1-.*3P*!43:34N!*-!*23!,-03!)K.I *23*+1!9#*#%!O23!73K!?.+*!-/!*23!9#*#!,-934!6#)!*23! #012#3-4-$+1#4!+.*30:3.*+-.A!8?*!*23!,-934!+.14?939! DOVRWKHȴ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

$IWHU WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH GDWD PRGHO WKH ȴUVW VWHS ZDV WKH FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ RI ȴQGV DQG DVVLJQPHQW RI *23!#0123-4-$+1#4!5-*3.*+#4!:#4?3!*-!3:30K!1#*3$-0K%! (DFKȴQGZDVDVVRFLDWHGWRDFDWHJRU\ZLWKDSURSHU 43:34! -/! $3.30#4+*KA! 6+*2! *6-! #+,);! *-! #:-+9! *23! *--! SDUWLFXODULQIRUPDWLRQGXHWRDUFKDHRORJLFDOȴQGVLQ RUGHU WR REWDLQ DQ HɝFLHQW DOJRULWKPLF SURFHGXUH #.9!*-!#44-6!/-0!#!)5#*+#4!+.9?1*+-.!#8-?*!#012#3-I 4-$+1#4!5-*3.*+#4%!O23.!*-!3:30K!1#*3$-0K!6#)!$+:3.!#! :#4?3! -/! 5-*3.*+#4A! 62+12! +)! 1-,5?*39! -.! *23! 8#)+)! -/!*23!*K53)!-/!#012#3-4-$+1#4!+./-0,#*+-.!*-!62+12!

!"##$%&'('

**)"+$,-$.$-/'$&'0,12"%3%4/'**

!"#$%&

(2)

!"#$"#%&'()(*+! "#$%!& '(')*+%! ,-*!.*/)!')*0!1#'!)2!*/03*''!)-*!3*4#)52.'!6*)1**.! #37-#*242$57#4!7#)*$235*'!5.!)-*!'#+*!7-32.242$57#4! SHULRGDQGWKURXJKGL΍HUHQWSHULRGV:HVKRZHGLQ 8!"#"$%,("-..(9:;;<!!"#"!%,("-..KRZDPRGLȴFDWLRQ 2=!)-*!"#$*>#.?!+2@*4!7#.!6*!A'*@!)2!#''5$.!#37-#*B 242$57#4!02)*.)5#4C!3*4(5.$!2.!)-*!=#7)!)-#)!)-*!735)*35#! A'*@!=23!#))356A)5.$!#37-#*242$57#4!02)*.)5#4!#.@!)-*! 735)*35#!A'*@!=23!#''5$.5.$!5+023)#.7*!)2!1*6!0#$*'! 6(!'*#37-!*.$5.*'!#3*!62)-!6#'*@!2.!3*4#)52.'C!#.@! TXLWH VLPLODU $ PRGLȴ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ȴQGVUHODWLYHWRWKDW FHOOWKHȊLPSRUWDQFHȋUHVXOWLQJIURPWKHDSSOLFDWLRQ 2=!)-*!"#$*>#.?!6#'*@!+2@*4!1544!6*!)-*!#37-#*242B $57#4!02)*.)5#4!2=!)-#)!7*44%!J.@**@!)-*!#37-#*242$57#4! 02)*.)5#4!2=!*#7-!7*44!'-2A4@!6*!+23*!#0032035#)*4(! 5.)*303*)*@!#'!)-*!02)*.)5#4!26)#5.*@!1-*.!@5$$5.$! D*3)57#44(!=32+!)-*!'A3=#7*!@21.!)2!)-#)!7*44%!K23!)-5'! 3*#'2.C!#'!)-*!*/7#D#)52.!$2*'!@**0*3C!)-*!#37-#*2B 42$57#4!02)*.)5#4!5.73*#'*'% 7KHVHWRIZHLJKWHGOLQNVRULJLQDWLQJE\FHOOVZLWKȴQB GVDQGȊVSUHDGLQJȋWKHSRWHQWLDOLVUHSUHVHQWHGE\ #.!/(0(/!+#)35/!1C!1-*3*!/!5'!)-*!)2)#4!.A+6*3!2=! 7*44'!2=!)-*!'A6'A3=#7*!2=!)-*!123?!#3*#%!,-*!*4*+*.)! L_M?!2=!)-*!+#)35/(1!5'!#!.A+6*3!3*03*'*.)5.$!)-*!0#3)! 2=!5+023)#.7*!)-#)!7*44!2()3#.'=*3'!)2!7*44!34!,-*!+#)35/! 1!5'!26)#5.*@!)-32A$-!)-*!=244215.$!')*0'F!

HDFK FHOO FRQWDLQLQJ D ȴQG LV OLQNHG ZLWK WKH FHOOV #32A.@!5)C!15)-5.!#!7*3)#5.!@5')#.7*C!1-57-!5'!72+0AB )*@!5.!)-*!.*/)!')*0<

B!#!45')!2=!)-*!02''564*!=A.7)52.#4!#3*#'C!5%*%!4*D*4'!2=! '0#)5#4! #.@! =A.7)52.#4! 23$#.5N#)52.! 8*%$%! A36#.C! 'AB 6A36#.C!3A3#4!#3*#'E!5.!1-57-!)-*!A36#.!'0#7*!5'!23B $#.5N*@C!-#'!6**.!@3*1!A0%!,-*!@5')#.7*!2=!)-*!03*B YLRXVVWHSJLYLQJWKHDUHDRILQȵXHQFHRIHDFKFHOOLV 3*4#)*@!)2!)-*!=A.7)52.#4!#3*#!)-*!7*44!5'!5.%!,-*!035.75B SOHEHKLQGWKLVDVVRFLDWLRQLVWKDWWKHVDPHȴQGLQDQ KLJKYDOXHGIXQFWLRQDODUHDLHDȊPRUHLPSRUWDQWȋ 2.*E!-#'!+23*!0326#6545)(!2=!)-*!03*'*.7*!2=!8+23*! YDOXDEOHRWKHUȴQGVLQWKHVXUURXQGLQJV B!)-*!1*5$-)'!2=!45.?'!2=!7*44'!#3*!.2)!A.5=23+!5.'5@*! WKHDUHDRILQȵXHQFHEXWWKH\DUHZHLJKWHGE\WKH $*2+230-242$57#4!@#)A+C!'5.7*!)-5'!@#)A+!72.')5)AB WHVDVRUWRIȊEDVLFFRQGLWLRQȋIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQW B!)-*!)2)#4!#+2A.)!2=!1*5$-)'!235$5.#)*@!6(!*#7-!7*44! 5'! 3*4#)*@! )2! #.! *+05357#4! *')5+#)52.! 2=! )-*! +2')! SUREDEOHȴQGVQH[WWRWKHȴ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ȴQDOUHVXOWKDVREWDLQHG #=)*3!#!D#45@#)52.!2=!)-*!3*'A4)'!032D5@*@!6(!#!03*45B +5.#3(! D*3'52.C! )-32A$-! ;&! .*1! 723*'C! 15)-! 1-57-! )-*!#4$235)-+!1#'!)*')*@C!5.!23@*3!)2!26)#5.!#!6*))*3! ȴWWLQJPRGHO7KHUHVXOWVSUHVHQWHGLQFOXGLQJWKHDUB 7-#*242$57#4!02)*.)5#4!+#0C!#3*!)2!6*!72.'5@*3*@!#'! WKH ȴUVW VWHSV WRZDUGV DQ DXWRPDWLF IRUPDOO\ GHȴB .#64*C!#.@!3*0*#)#64*!#0032#7-!)2!)-*!72+0A)#)52.! 2=!#37-#*242$57#4!02)*.)5#4%!Q=!72A3'*!.2!72+04*)*4(! #A)2+#)*@!0327*@A3*!12A4@!6*!02''564*!5.!)-5'!#.@! #.(!)#'?!5.D24D5.$!'275#4!#.@!-A+#.!6*-#D523C!'2!#4'2! 5.!)-*!03202'*@!#4$235)-+!)-*!0327*@A3*!5'!72.)324B 4*@! 6(! )-*! A'*3'! 8#37-#*242$5')'EC! 1-2! 7#.! +#.#$*! )-*! 1-24*! 0327*''! #''5$.5.$! D#4A*'! )2! *D*3(! 0#3#B +*)*3%!K23!)-*'*!3*#'2.'C!)-*!+#0!2=!#37-#*242$57#4! 02)*.)5#4!'-2A4@!6*!#41#('!*D#4A#)*@!5.!72.MA.7)52.! 15)-! )-*! 5.)*303*)*@! #37-#*242$57#4! @#)#! 0A645'-*@! 5.! P#00#RJS! 8111%+#00#032M*7)%23$T1*6$5'EC! #.@! 15)-! )-*! 3#1! @#)#! 3*4*#'*@! #'! 20*.! @#)#! 5.! PQU! 8P#00#!Q0*.!U#)#!111%+#00#032M*7)%23$T+2@E%!J.! )-5'!1#(C!)-*!03*@57)5D*!+#0!2=!#37-#*242$57#4!02)*.B )5#4!5'!#!A'*=A4!#.@!021*3=A4!)224!62)-!=23!4#.@!+#.#B $*+*.)!#.@!=23!#37-#*242$57#4!3*'*#37-% !"#$"%&'()*+ %#"&'"#"$()*$!"#"$+)*$(%!"%#"$()*$,%--",."%$,)*$,"%&/+0.."$1)*$ ,2%.%#3"$+).)*$4%44%.%53/$+)*$1%5-"$,)!9:;;C'Hȴ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

(3)

'%(!")*+,-.,/$!

0..12*/.!13-#.,3/!

.4)35$4!-30.!05)6#-*07!

#!-#0*!0.5+8!

9#)13!9,..*)!

:/,;*)0,.<!+,!=,*/#!%!>*+,?)@!A

?/.3/,#!?)/31+50BC58D/+;1+

:/,;*)0,.<!+,!=,*/#E!F,$,0.*)!0)1AA

94,#)#!>#--#/,!

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ȴUVWSDUWRIWKHSURFHGXUHLVGHGXFWLYHVHH/""0

1"'!#/+!3.4*)0!(KK(E!2%''+'&!(KK&E!T#2*)2#/0!#/+!

3.4*)0! (KKUL%! P.! 0.#).0! I,.4! #! -),.,-#1! *;#15#.,3/! 36! .4*! )*1,#G,1,.8! 36! .4*! #;#,1#G1*! */;,)3/2*/.#1! +#.#%! V*! H)3+5-*! 0*;*)#1! I*,$4.*+!-30.! 05)6#-*0! )*1#.*+! .3! 23;,/$! 3)! .3! .#Q,/$! #+;#/.#$*! 36! .4*! 1#/+0-#H*! ,/!#/8!3.4*)!I#8E!1,Q*!,/!#$),-51.5)#1!H)3+5-.,3/!#/+! 5)G#/!3)!6#)20.*#+!0*..1,/$%!M4,0!2*#/0!.3!-)*#.*!#! 0*),*0!36!)#0.*)!05)6#-*0!.3!*;#15#.*!1#/+0-#H*!6*#.5B )*0!,/+*H*/+*/.18%!M4*8!-#/!G*!*,.4*)!#..)#-.3)0E!+*B WUDFWRUVRUȊUHSHOOHUVȋIDFLOLWDWRUVDQGREVWDFOHV7KH GL΍HUHQFHLVWKDWWKHȴUVWWZRDFWDWDGLVWDQFHWKH ODWWHUȊXQGHURXUIHHWȋ([DPSOHVRIHDFKW\SHIRUPRB ;,/$!#)*7!0H),/$0E!#-.,;*!;31-#/3*0E!1*;*1!#)*#0E!0.**H! 013H*0!3)!2#,/!),;*)0!.3!-)300%!P/0.*#+E!#!),;*)!.3!631B 13I!G8!G3#.!3)!#/!*R,0.,/$!)3#+!-#/!G*!-3/0,+*)*+!#0! ȊIDFLOLWDWRUVȋ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ȵDWODQGV 08/3/82350!36!4,$418!H)3+5-.,;*!03,10E!I4,-4!,0!/3.! DOZD\V WKH FDVH EXW LQGHHG RIWHQ 7KLV D΍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ȴFFRQWH[WΖQDGGLWLRQZH 04351+!/3.!I*,$4!.4*!H#)#2*.*)0!,/!.4*!0#2*!I#8!,6! I*!I,04!.3!H)*+,-.!.4*!13-#.,3/!36!#!.32GE!#!6#)20.*B #+!3)!#!04*H4*)+N0!45.% M4,)+E!I*!.4,/Q!O5#/.,.#.,;*!#HH)3#-4*0!.3!H)*+,-.,B ;,.8!+3!/3.!*/-35)#$*!#)-4#*313$,0.0!.3!50*!.4*2!,/! WKHLUGDLO\ZRUNȵRZ$KLJKNQRZOHGJHRI*Ζ6WHFKQRB 13$8! #/+! #1$3),.420! ,0! #0052*+! J\%') -"34"'! #/+! 3.4*)0!(KKULE!#!G#-Q$)35/+!230.!#)-4#*313$,0.0!+3! /3.!4#;*%!P/0.*#+E!I3)Q,/$!I,.4!-5251#.,;*!I*,$4.*+! -30.!05)6#-*0!4#0!#!13I*)!1*#)/,/$!.4)*0431+E!0,/-*!,.! /**+0!3/18!.4*!50*!36!.4*!)#0.*)!-#1-51#.3)!3/!#!@P=! SODWIRUPΖWLVDȵH[LEOHWRROIRUULVNPDQDJHPHQWDQG #)-4#*313$,-#1!)*0*#)-4%!V*!-#/!,/-)*#0*!3)!)*+5-*! .4*!I*,$4.!36!#!-*).#,/!H#)#2*.*)!#--3)+,/$!.3!.4*! *;#15#.,3/! I*! #)*! )5//,/$%! Z3)! ,/0.#/-*E! +)#,/#$*! -#/! G*! 23)*! )*1*;#/.! .4#/! 013H*! ,/! *;#15#.,/$! .4*! -51.,;#G1*!1#/+%!P.!-#/!G*!.4*!3HH30,.*!I4*/!*;#15#B .,/$!#!H3.*/.,#1!)35.*%!P.!,0!#!$33+!H)#-.,-*!.3!+*-1#B

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

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ȴQH WH[WXUHG DQG KXPLG VRLOV DV IDFLOLWDWRUV #.)!$2#*(++<!0,6+0!#.)!0/2(#E0!#0!,M0/#3+(0%!'(!/26()! ,4/!M,/1!/1(!+6/1,+,$63#+!#.)!/1(!0,6+!E#-!5,2!-2,)437 /6*6/<!(*#+4#/6,.%!'(!-2,)43()!52,E!/1(!QKR!#!G@!3E! 6./(2*#+!3,./,42!E#-!/,!6)(./65<!/1(!-2(0(.3(!,5!0E#++! 06.3(!/,!0(//+(!,.!#.!=6./(2E6//(./B!0E#++!0/2(#E!60!+67 :(+<!+(00!5#*,42#M+(% L1(!.(8/!0/(-!60!/,!#006$.!/,!(#31!-#2#E(/(2!#!9(6$1/! 6.!2(+#/6,.!/,!/1(!)60/#.3(!52,E!6/!,2!/,!/1(!+,3#+!*#7 OXH7KHQZHWXUQHGWKHYHFWRUȴOHVLQWRUDVWHUVDQG DGGHGWKHPLQWKHUDVWHUFDOFXODWRU:Hȴ[HGWKHȴ7 .#+!#E,4./!/,!AD!/140!9(6$16.$!(#31!2#0/(2!#0!#!52#37 /6,.%! L160! 0(3,.)! 9(6$16.$! 0/(-! #++,90! /,! 6.32(#0(! #.)!)(32(#0(!/1(!*#+4(!,5!(#31!06.$+(!-#2#E(/(2!6.! WKHȴQDOFXPXODWLYHFRVWVXUIDFH:HFDQGRLWHLWKHU 5,2! (*#+4#/6.$! /1(! 06/(! +,3#/6,.D! /1(! 2,4/(! .(/9,2:D! /1(!2(0,423(!(8-+,6/#/6,.D!(/3%!;.!/160!3#0(!0/4)<D!9(! SURGXFHGWKUHHGL΍HUHQWFRPELQHGFRVWVXUIDFHVWR HYDOXDWH WKH PRVW SURȴWDEOH DUHDV IRU WKH ORFDWLRQ ,5!242#+!0(//+(E(./0!5,340()!,.!32,-!-2,)43/6,.%!N57 WHUZHUHFODVVLȴHGWKHFHOOVLQȴYHTXDOLWDWLYHFODVVHV =-+#/(!?B%!>+#00!G!E(#.0!.,!06/(!60!+6:(+<!/,!M(!5,4.)D! DQGFODVVPHDQVȊLWLVYHU\OLNHO\ȋ7KLVDOORZHGWR (8-(26E(./! 96/1! 0(*(2#+! 9(6$1/! 3,EM6.#/6,.0! /,! FKHFNZKLFKUHVXOWVȴWWHGEHVWZLWKWKHDUFKDHRORJL7 3#+! :.,9+()$(%! S.(! ,5! /1(! E#-0! E#/31()! /1(! FGT! ,5!/1(!:.,9.!0(//+(E(./0!96/16.!/1(!3+#00!A!3(++0%!'(! 3,.06)(2!/160!2(04+/!,.+<!#.!6./(2E()6#/(!0/(-%!N+0,! /1(! #7-,0/(26,26! 3,.52,./#/6,.! 96/1! /1(! 3,26.(! +#.)! 40(!E#-!$#*(!-,06/6*(!2(04+/0% U6.#++<D!9(!)6)!0-,/!042*(<0!,.!/1(!E,0/!#.)!+(#0/!-,7 /(./6#+!#2(#0!/,!$(/!E,2(!6.06$1/!6.!/1(!-2,3()42(V0! 2(+6#M6+6/<%!;.!-#2/634+#2D!9(!31,0(!/,!(*#+4#/(!/1(!WW! 0E#++!26)$(0!9(!)(26*()!52,E!/1(!QKR%!'(!042*(<()! ?@!,5!/1(E!=-+#/(!XBD!M(6.$!/1(!,/1(20!-2,M#M+<!2(3(./! DUWLȴFLDOPRXQGVDVZDVVXJJHVWHGE\VDWHOOLWHLPD7 JHV1RQHRIWKHPOD\RQDFODVVDQGRIWKHȴ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ȴHOGV N+/1,4$1! ,.+<! 0/#.)#2)! \;J! /(31.6]4(0! #2(! 6.*,+7 *()D!9(!/16.:!/160!E(/1,)!)(0(2*(0!/,!M(!-2,E,/()! 6.!#++!6/0!#0-(3/0%!;.!-#2/634+#2D!9(!0/2(00!/1(!326/63#+! #.)!,-(.!1#.)+6.$!,5!/1(!+#.)03#-(!)#/#!#.)!,5!/1(! 9(6$1/0!#--+6()!6.!/1(!3,0/!0425#3(0%!;.!#))6/6,.D!9(! WKLQNLWLVFUXFLDOWKHDFFRPSDQ\LQJȴHOGVXUYH\:H -+#.!/,!)(*(+,-!6/!542/1(2D!(0-(36#++<!5,2!-2#3/63#+!40(! M<!/1(!0/4)(./0!,5!#231#(,+,$<D!/12,4$1!/1(!40(!,5! ,-(.!0,423(!0,5/9#2(!+6:(!^\;J%!L140D!9(!3,4+)!,*(27 3,E(! #4/,E#/63! 1#.)+6.$! ,5! 0-#/6#+! )#/#! ,2D! (*(.! 9,20(D!1#.)+6.$!#231#(,+,$63#+!)#/#!#0!65!/1(<!9(2(! .,/!)60/26M4/()!6.!#!2(#+!-1<063#+!+#.)03#-(%

(8)

!"#$"#%&'()(*+! "#$%!&'

&%(!)*+,#-./.$0+#/!

"*-10+203-!4.1-//05$6!#!

7.7.8#/!9.!2,-!:;<!

.9!2,-!=-5-2.!*-$0.5%

)502#!:#8#.22.>!?#58!@#4-4#58

A503-*802B!.9!C-01-5 D,-! 202/-! .9! 2,08! +.52*0EF20.5! 08! 2#G-5! 9*.4! 4B! H):I! J7-+0#/0K#20.5! 2,-808! L,0+,! -M7.8-8! 2,-! L.*G! 7/#5! DQGWKHRXWFRPHVRIDȴ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΍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

.)+")013'>!0&'1,..!#('!3#3&'(,2?)'C3'455B&'<%"51-6(,1/3( F-2%&/"1-/@(1-(D&23"%050612"5($&%.12/10-&'05'?!1)#1!0"' ;3'#51!.2,-*8!-18%6!77%':4D/:953 >)#;!*)0'@3&'E,%.)<'%3'*3'45::&'C-/%6&"/1-6(D&23"%050612"5( ?3%0&@("-.($&%.12/14%(!0.%51-6;("(I14%(G%#0&/(9&0=(/3%( >2%-%>!05!XY.F*5#/!.9!)*+,#-./.$0+#/!<-2,.1!#51!D,-P .*BZ>!9-E*F#*B!V'&&>!5.!77%